Case Study: Population Collapse? What You Start to See When You Actually Start Thinking

A few years ago, I would’ve rolled my eyes at what I’m about to say.

Back then, when people claimed Social Security wouldn’t be there for them, I’d dismiss it as conspiracy talk. “The government will patch it,” I thought. “This is just fear-mongering.”

But recently, I’ve been seeing things differently—because I started noticing patterns. And once you see the patterns, it’s hard to unsee them.

What began as a few unrelated trends evolved into something bigger—something systemic.

This newsletter isn’t a political rant or a doomsday warning.
It’s a thinking exercise. A demonstration of the frameworks I’ve been sharing:
→ Root cause analysis
→ Systems thinking
→ Inversion
→ Strategic and first principles thinking

We’re going to use those tools to examine what might be happening underneath the surface of one of the biggest challenges of our time:
Declining population, crumbling families, and what it means for the future.

Coincidence? Or Design?

Start with this question:

Why do so many of today’s big-ticket purchases—cars, appliances, electronics—feel like they’re built to fail in 7–10 years?

Your grandparents had appliances that lasted 30 years.
Now you’re lucky if your washer or fridge hits year 8.

Same with cars.
We went from 100K mile lifespans to 200–300K mile Toyotas.
Now we’re back to complex, costly machines that wear out earlier and are harder to fix.

Add in restrictions on self-repair.
Add in “right to repair” fights.
Add in rising prices and shorter warranties.

Coincidence? Convenience? Planned obsolescence?

Maybe. Or maybe the incentives have shifted—and we didn’t notice.

Then Zoom Out Further

Marriage rates? Down.
Birth rates? Down.
Household formation? Delayed or abandoned.
More adults are single, childless, and disconnected from long-term community.

Meanwhile:

• Fertility rates are below replacement level (1.7 vs. the needed 2.2)
• The dating market is dysfunctional
• “Child-free by choice” is no longer fringe—it’s mainstream

Now ask yourself:

If you wanted to design a system that resulted in civilizational decline, what would you do?

Inversion gives us the answer.

You’d:

• Delay family formation
• Make education expensive and never-ending
• Normalize isolation
• Discourage sacrifice
• Elevate personal freedom over shared responsibility
• Remove incentives for parenting and marriage
• Replace real relationships with digital ones

Sound familiar?

So What’s Actually Happening?

I don’t believe in conspiracy theories. But I do believe in feedback loops, misaligned incentives, and systemic drift.

The system is producing exactly what it’s built to produce:

• Fewer families
• Less connection
• More consumerism
• More control
• More surveillance
• And more dependence on centralized systems

We see it in aging populations, crumbling institutions, and rising cultural confusion.

And yet most people chalk it up to random chance.

It’s not random. It’s structural.

So Why Does This Matter?

Because once you see it, you can’t unsee it.
And once you understand it, you can choose how to respond.

You don’t have to accept the default path. You don’t have to follow the script.

You can:

• Apply root cause thinking to your personal choices
• Use systems thinking to evaluate your environment
• Use inversion to test strategies
• Rebuild from first principles what you want your life—and legacy—to look like

This isn’t just about birth rates or broken appliances.

It’s about how to think when the surface no longer makes sense.
It’s about reclaiming agency in a world designed to keep you distracted.

If you want the full breakdown, I just published a long-form case study that applies these tools to the potential population collapse and the systems accelerating it.

Want to read the full article? Find it here.

Or, if you're ready to apply these tools in your own life and business, stay tuned.
This is just one example of what’s possible when you stop reacting—and start thinking clearly.

P.S. I first got into this line of thinking years ago after reading the book, Freakonomics. It taught me to follow the incentives and question the obvious. If you’ve never read it, consider this your nudge.

And if you have read it, then you already know why this stuff matters.